Just because the game isn’t played at traditional software, does not mean that IT still has a disruptive power, the Social web is very disruptive and eminating from the Valley. I think Siebel isn’t wrong in that the IT he was part in creating won’t be as important, it’s just that there something else brewing right now, and it is much more powerful than the CRM systems and Oracle databases that changed the Enterprise in it’s ability to change society.
Mostly because it is happening outside of those large enterprises. The social web is getting to every corner of the globe quickly, and it is connecting people with each other, allowing them to work together, share knowledge information in an unprecedented pace and scale. And Siebel I think you kind of missed, most of this happens in the valley still (Yes some of it is happening elsewhere, but all databases and CRM systems were not created in the valley either!)
The first wave of IT was about storing data, the second about transacting business, the third about connecting people. Enterprises, and “enterprise software” people and companies are still very much stuck in the early parts of the second wave, whereas individuals and forward looking startups are starting to look towards what the fourth wave of disruption will be.
Relational Databases have had their day.
Associational Databases are on the horizon.
Data has been a center. Process has been a center. Network has been a center. Currently People are the center. The center will continue to move.
Ask yourself, “What will the next center be?”