So it’s a done deal, Nokia and Microsoft joining forces.
I think this is bad news for Nokia, and bad news for the Nordics that was once an epicenter for Mobile technology.
Why? In spite that I think Scoble is most likley right that Windows Phone 7 has an something in terms of appeal, but:
- Microsoft need a lot of hardware backing, HTC and some of the loyal Windows phone makers, have pushed Windows phones. And they will continue to do so. Most of them are more excited about Android though, for lot’s of reasons (they can extend, adopt etc). Carriers like Android (not for all the good reasons, but they can change the OS to create consumer lock-in). Nokia for Microsoft is a great choice, a full commitment for a full range of hardware devices, will help Microsoft move forward with Windows Phone 7.
- But Nokia is missing out on the whole app opportunity. That is where the game is being decided right now, and Windows Phone 7, sorry there are no apps to speak of. And anyone of the developers I talk to every week here in Silicon Valley, Windows Phone 7, is platform no 5 or 6 on their list (Apple iOS and Android be the top two).
- Nokia would have needed to create something that has great appeal for app developers, Android would have been the logical choice, lot’s of developers and momentum. Nokia could still done what every other mobile phone manufacturer do with Android, build custom UI and other components and apps on top to make it unique enough.
- I don’t think Microsoft still has made any money out of their mobile OS franchise, they certainly have the cash to keep going for quite some time, but they can not pay developers forever to develop for the platform. And I don’t hink Nokia have the time to wait for the critical mass to emerge around Windows Phone app development.
Microsoft is desperate in the mobile space and need somebody to push hardware with it, problem is Nokia is just as desperate… Two bad does not mean synergy…
However with the resources Microsoft and Nokia have for this, something will happen, and Nokia still creates great hardware, so I think we will see some interesting phones coming out of this. But IMHO the long-term (regained) success for Nokia will not be on a clear path by this move.